EDPros need better early warning systems Wednesday, April 16, 2003 This morning brings news that a glass plant in College Park, PA is closing. Here's the paragraph that caught my attention: "We had no prior knowledge that this was going to happen," said Art Heim, vice president for economic development with the Centre County Chamber of Business and Industry. Well, I thought to myself, "Why was this a surprise?" Three years ago, I was working in Corning, NY, which has a similar TV tube plant. Back then we were hearing rumors of a plant closing. And this is no small fish...the College Park plant has 1,000 employees. So, here's a quick and dirty Early Warning System that you can implement. Step 1: Follow the 80/20 rule. 80% of your employment is going to come from 20% of your employers. Make sure you know who these are. If you have a high proportion of manufacturers in that 20%, you've got a more fluid situation than an EDPro whose heavy hitters are dominated by education and health care. Step 2: Build your intelligence networks. Start cultivating sources on your big employers. Take their temperature (at least quarterly). This network is just that...a network. Rely on a lot of different sources of information. Triangulate to figure out where you are. (Years ago, as a corporate strategy consultant working for General Electric, I would evaluate competitors by reading 10-K and analyst reports, paying close attention to plant holidays and shift schedules, interviewing suppliers to pick up gossip, and even counting cars in parking lots to estimate employment.) In this day, rely on e-mail and the Internet. I have even constructed web pages that brings all of my contacts and industry sources together and puts them one click away. Step 3: Prepare contingency plans. You can never run against a market. If a plant is going to close, there's little chance you have to keep it going. But you can prepare contingency plans for workers and facilities. (See, for example, how Missouri's quick response team works.) As a practical matter, you need to get beyond the closing as quickly as possible. Take care of the workers as best you can, activate clawbacks on incentives (if you have them), and then shift the topic of conversation. Don't get caught in an a quagmire...move on. In any case, you should never be quoted in the paper saying "We had no prior knowledge..." posted by Ed Morrison |		This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. links Some Background on EDPro Weblog The purpose of this weblog is to help economic development professionals -- EDPros -- keep up with the changes sweeping our profession. Strap on your goggles. It's a whole new game. There are no experts any more. The only place to learn about economic development is from other EDPros who are doing it. One other point: the prevaling approach (paradigm, if you like) in economic development is shifting from competition to collaboration. There are a lot of reaasons underlying this shift, but here's the important insight: You, your community, and your region will do better by collaborating and sharing information. So, spread the word...Share the knowledge. Tell a friend about EDPro Weblog. If you are using a news reader, here is the link to syndicate this site: Here's the link if you are a bloglines subscriber: Speaking and workshops on Open Source Economic Development As the idea of Open Source Economic Development starts spreading, more people are asking about it. Visit the I-Open web site to learn more. My colleagues and I are happy to explain the basic concepts in a talk or a workshop. E-mail Susan Alshuler if you'd like to learn more about workshops and speaking. Background on Ed Morrison Download some background information on me here.

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